TORONTO – This week
marks Canada’s first change of government in nearly a decade, following
the unexpectedly large victory of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s
Liberal Party in mid-October’s general election. To understand what the
change will mean for Canada’s relations with the world requires taking
stock of the country’s international posture under Trudeau’s
Conservative predecessor, Stephen Harper.
Broadly speaking, the
election of Trudeau (whose father, Pierre, was Prime Minister when he
was born in 1971 and served from 1968 to 1979, and again from 1980 to
1984) constitutes a rejection of Harper’s polarizing political agenda
and antagonistic leadership style. Under Harper, Canada drifted away
from multilateral engagement, shirking institutions such as the United
Nations in favor of a more aggressive, value-driven foreign and security
policy that divided the world into friends and foes.
Harper’s tough talk
on Russia’s annexation of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine,
and on China’s disturbing human-rights record won him wide public
support. But his stance on climate change proved to be more
controversial. By withdrawing Canada from the Kyoto Protocol and largely
rejecting the issue’s significance (before finally offering limited
concessions to reduce the country’s carbon footprint), he diminished
Canada’s standing on one of the premier global issues of our time. In
the Middle East, Canadian foreign policy was essentially restricted to
unflinching support for Israel’s government.
Such policy
positions, and others, explain why in 2010 Canada suffered a major
diplomatic defeat, when its bid for a seat on the UN Security Council
failed, shocking the country’s foreign-policy establishment.
Harper leaves a
better legacy on the trade front, where he provided committed leadership
in pursuing ambitious accords with both the European Union (the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, CETA) and Asia (the Trans-Pacific Partnership,
TPP). For his part, Trudeau has already signaled that he will press
ahead on ratification of both CETA and TPP – thus helping to lessen
Canada’s over-reliance on trade with the United States.
In particular, the
new Liberal government is committed to assisting small and medium-size
Canadian businesses gain a foothold in the EU. European governments and
businesses can expect to see very engaged Canadian diplomacy on trade
and investment issues.
Canada’s
transatlantic partners, for their part, have similarly high hopes for
Trudeau and his administration, particularly owing to his commitment to
pursue more ambitious emission-reduction targets at the upcoming UN
Climate Change Conference in Paris. And closer integration with Canada’s
vast energy resources could provide Europe with an attractive
alternative to its heavy reliance on imports from Russia and the Middle
East.
Many in the Canadian
energy sector will follow Trudeau’s climate agenda with trepidation; but
his push for environmental reform may turn out to be a blessing in
disguise for the country’s energy companies. Canada has an opportunity
not only to repair its international reputation, but also to highlight
the significant technological and ecological advances made by innovative
oil producers in recent years.
In terms of security
and defense policy, the Trudeau administration’s positions are more
opaque. The day after his election, Trudeau told US President Barack
Obama that he would withdraw Canada from the anti-Islamic State bombing
campaign in Syria and Iraq. On the other hand, the Liberal Party’s
stated commitment to maintaining defense spending and continuing
Canada’s NATO operations in Central and Eastern Europe should reassure
the country’s strategic allies.
Moreover, Trudeau is
making good on his campaign promise to accept 25,000 Syrian refugees as
soon as possible. This should be viewed as a welcome, if largely
symbolic, show of solidarity by Canada to help the EU cope with its most
severe crisis in decades.
Perhaps most
important, whatever direction Canadian foreign (and domestic) policy
takes, it is abundantly clear that the policymaking process will change
dramatically under Trudeau. Over the course of nearly ten years in
office, Harper crafted a powerful, highly centralized executive to “get
things done” and control the political narrative, famously seeking a
high level of personal engagement in every aspect of his government.
Trudeau, by contrast,
has vowed to be a very different type of leader, promising to pursue an
inclusive approach to policymaking and to allow his ministers to take
much greater responsibility for their portfolios. In many ways, his
campaign’s message of change – together with enormous charisma and
personal confidence – recalled Obama’s first run for the White House in
2008.
As Trudeau embarks on
a hectic schedule of foreign visits, including four back-to-back
international summits, he will introduce himself to the world with a
familiar message of hope and cooperation. However the challenges of
governing change him over the next four years, it is already apparent
today that Canada will not be the same
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