The Fed’s strategy has been to stimulate the economy by driving down
long-term interest rates by amassing long-term bonds and pledging to
keep short-term rates near zero. A result has been to increase home and
stock prices and, by lifting household wealth, encourage consumer
spending.
But the magnitude of the effect has been too small to raise economic
growth to a healthy rate. Home building has increased rapidly, but from
such a low level that its contribution to gross domestic product has
been very small. And the increase in total consumer spending has slowed,
despite the soaring stock market.
The net result is that the economy has been growing at an annual rate of
less than 2 percent. (The latest estimate, that the economy grew at an
annualized rate of 3.6 percent in the third quarter, overstates the
strength of demand because half of that increase was just because of
inventory accumulation.) Weak growth has also meant weak employment
gains. The decline in unemployment, to 7 percent, as announced on
Friday, has largely reflected the decreasing number of people looking
for work. Total private-sector employment is actually less than it was
six years ago.
While doing little to stimulate the economy, the Fed’s policy of low
long-term interest rates has caused individuals and institutions to take
excessive risks that could destabilize the economy just as it did
before the 2007-9 recession. It has pushed up the values of everything
from Iowa farmland to emerging-market bonds. Banks are lending to
lower-quality commercial borrowers. Households are seeking higher
returns by investing in real estate trusts and other high-risk products.
Although the Fed is expected to “taper” its bond buying, its promise to
keep long-term interest rates abnormally low means that it is
unwittingly encouraging private investors and institutions to continue
to take risks.
A bipartisan House-Senate conference committee on the budget is closing in
on a compromise, before the House adjourns for the year, on Friday,
that would limit the across-the-board budget cuts known as the sequester
and prevent another government shutdown. But even this modest deal
would not produce the kind of long-term fiscal policy needed to achieve
strong income and employment growth.
To get the economy back on track, President Obama should propose, and
Congress should enact, a five-year fiscal package that would move the
growth of gross domestic product to above 3 percent a year and focus on
direct government spending on infrastructure.
Although the mission of the military has been reduced with the end of
the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is also substantial need to
replace and repair the equipment of the armed forces. Some of this aid
could also extend to state and local governments.
The total price tag over five years would have to exceed $1 trillion to
achieve the needed rise in the economic growth rate. The lack of
“shovel-ready” projects is not an excuse for not pursuing this strategy
or for diverting the funds into income transfers and other low-impact
spending of the kind that made the 2009 stimulus so ineffective. It
would be better to spend a year or two preparing for the right kind of
spending.
It would be irresponsible, however, to add another trillion dollars to
the national debt without higher revenues or lower spending. Doing so
would frighten financial markets and business executives, reducing
private spending and offsetting the stimulus’s benefits.
The key, therefore, is to combine a major short-term fiscal stimulus
with long-term deficit reductions that would cause the ratio of debt to
gross domestic product to begin declining by the end of this decade.
Slowing the growth of Social Security and Medicare and raising revenue
by limiting the subsidies that are built into the tax code could shrink
future deficits to less than 2 percent of gross domestic product, enough
to put the debt-to-G.D.P. ratio on a path back to the 40 percent level
that we had before the recession. That should be the goal for this
Congress or the next one. And it would allow the Fed to stop trying to
shoulder — with increasing futility — the burden of saving the economy
all by itself.
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