Image Credit: By US Embassy Riyadh, Wikimedia Commons
American policy shifts in the past few years have strained Riyadh’s ties with Washington. The Saudis were stunned when the United States dropped support for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak during the 2011 Tahrir Square protests. Following Mubarak’s ouster, the Saudi monarchy—and our other Middle East partners—wondered: Is this how Washington will treat us one day?
Saudi Arabia’s strategy in Syria since the uprising against President Bashar al Assad has largely been a failure, but ambiguous US policies only made things worse for King Abdullah. President Obama’s mercurial stance toward the moderate Syrian opposition is vexing. But after Assad was caught using chemical weapons against Syrian civilians, Obama’s last-minute decision to not follow through on a military strike enraged King Abdullah.
Then there is Iran. The Saudi Kingdom has been locked in a cold war with the Islamic Republic over leadership of the Muslim world and dominance in the Persian Gulf since Iran’s 1979 Revolution. Riyadh fears the growing Shia and Iranian strength around its borders will pose an existential threat to the monarchy.
The Obama administration left King Abdullah out of the loop about the administration’s secret talks with Iran in 2013 that presaged the current nuclear negotiations. The subsequent push to compromise with Tehran has fueled Saudi suspicion that Washington may sacrifice its traditional ally’s security for the chance at a new strategic relationship with Iran.
A Saudi Arabia facing the turmoil in the region with waning American support will not mean good things for the United States. Increased sponsorship of regional Sunni proxy groups, deeper military ties with China, and—of course—acquiring nuclear weapons will all be on the table. Tamir Pardo, head of Israel’s Mossad, hinted at this grim scenario yesterday noting that the “the bad agreement taking shape with Iran is likely to lead to a regional arms race.”
It is not all doom and gloom. The basic infrastructure of US diplomatic, military, and intelligence cooperation with Riyadh remains strong. The Saudi-led policies that have driven the price of oil below $50 a barrel have given the West critical new leverage against Iran and Russia. We are partners in the fight against ISIS even if we don’t always see eye to eye about the rest of Syria and Iraq. Our security interests are still aligned in Yemen, especially as the Iranian-backed al Houthi rebels push the country into yet another potentially crippling crisis.
The US-Saudi relationship is far from perfect even on its best days. Their human rights record and encouragement of Salafist and other extremist religious movements remain serious concerns. But an increasingly insecure Riyadh does no one any good. Whoever the US sends to Abdullah’s funeral needs to bring more reassurance than merely our sympathies and a card.
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